The January transfer window is always a nail-biting time for football fans, but for Spurs supporters, it’s even more so this year. With the squad in a rebuild and strict squad regulations in both the Premier League and European competitions, the club has to tread carefully. Will Ange Postecoglou be able to bring in the reinforcements he needs while navigating the complexities of homegrown player rules? Let’s delve into the numbers and see what our options are.
Decoding the Squad Rules
Both the Premier League and European competitions have specific rules dictating squad composition, and these limitations directly impact our transfer strategy. Let’s break them down:
Photo Dom Le Roy from Pexels
European Squad Rules:
● Non-Homegrown Players: A maximum of 17 non-homegrown players are permitted in the squad.
● Homegrown Players: 8 spots are reserved for locally trained players, divided into:
○ Club-trained: 4 players who have been with the club for three seasons before their 21st birthday (or the end of the season during which they turn 21).
○ Association-trained: 4 players who have been registered with any club affiliated with The Football Association or the Football Association of Wales for three seasons before turning 21 (or the end of the season during which they turn 21).
● Under-21 Players: Unlimited under-21 players are allowed, but they must have been at the club for two years to be eligible.
Premier League Squad Rules:
● Non-Homegrown Players: The Premier League allows 17 non-homegrown players in a 25-man squad.
● Homegrown Players: 8 spots are allocated for homegrown players, with the same definition as association trained players in European competitions.
● Under-21 Players: The number of under-21 players is unrestricted.
This season, for the Premier League and European competitions, under-21 players will have been born on or after 1 January 2003.
Tottenham’s Current Squad: A Numbers Game
European Squad
Analysing Tottenham’s current European squad reveals a tight situation. Even with possible departures like Timo Werner, Fraser Forster or Richarlison the room for new signings is limited.
The homegrown player allocation for Europe poses a further challenge. Tottenham currently has two more association-trained players than permitted, which means both will be classified as non-homegrown. Consequently, we are already over our squad size restriction and were unable to register Djed Spence and Sergio Reguilon in the first half of the season.
The injury to Destiny Udogie means that we will probably want to register Djed Spence for the second half of the season. Yang Min-hyeok joined the club officially in January, if we wanted to register him, he would count as a non-homegrown player, despite being 18, because he hasn’t been at the club for the 2 years needed to be counted as an under-21 player (B List).
We are allowed to make a maximum of 3 changes to our European squad between the league and knockout phases of the competition.
At Ange’s press conference ahead of the Newcastle game, he gave the following expected return dates for the injured players; Richarlison and Mikey Moore – early January, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Ben Davies late January, Guglielmo Vicario late February.
We are at a 1 in, 1 out situation with our European squad. If Djed Spence is being added, we need to unregister someone to create the space and that leaves us with space for 2 further changes. Who do we drop to make space?
Tottenham Hotspur Europa League squad 2024-25
Premier League Squad
In the Premier League things are a tad easier with 3 free squad spaces, but would new players be willing to join us and only be included in the squad for domestic competitions?
In the Premier League Yang Min-hyeok qualifies as an under-21 player, so won’t need to take up a senior squad space.
Tottenham Hotspur Premier League squad 2024-25
Addressing the Needs, Navigating the Constraints
We have several areas requiring reinforcements: a goalkeeper, left-sided centreback, leftback cover, a defensive midfielder, a right-winger, and potentially a striker. However, the limited squad space necessitates a strategic and measured approach in the transfer market.
Looking Ahead: A Balancing Act
The January transfer window presents us with a challenge: balancing the need for immediate reinforcements with the long-term vision of squad building. Each signing must be carefully considered, taking into account both the immediate needs of the team and the limitations imposed by squad regulations. The current window will be less about a shopping spree and more about a calculated and precise approach to squad management.
Not for the first time Spurs find themselves at a crossroads. There is currently (27th Dec) no suggestion that the real decision makers are sharpening the axe but there is a chasm growing between those supporters who love the Ange project and will happily provide the mitigation to explain the recent run of results and those who see the current situation as totally unacceptable and want the Australian relieved of his duties immediately.
As Spurs fans we’re well attuned to this process. Since 1984 Spurs have appointed 19 permanent managers – Peter Shreeve, David Pleat, Terry Venables, Ossie Ardiles, Gerry Francis, Christian Gross, George Graham, Glenn Hoddle, Jacques Santini, Martin Jol, Juande Ramos, Harry Redknapp, AVB, Tim Sherwood, Mauricio Pochettino, Jose Mourinho, Nuno Espirito Santo, Antonio Conte and Ange. That’s roughly one every two years.
It’s not specific to Spurs by any means but the patterns are invariably the same. A string of bad results, crowd become restless, a sense of inevitability and a growing crescendo in the media usually followed by reports of player unrest, speculation about potential successors and then the ominous ‘Club Statement’ headline (or its pre-internet equivalent via a trusted media outlet).
Perhaps the toughest decision for any chairman (or whoever makes the decision) is whether to stick or twist once a manager appears to be in a tailspin. While Spurs have been through a lot of managers I feel that on the whole Daniel Levy has correctly sacked most managers at the right moment recognising that the tailspin each was in was irrecoverable.
It’s perfectly reasonable to find yourselves on either side of the debate but as a Spurs historian (very much with a small ‘h’) who has researched and written about every individual season, cycle and manager since 1980 I hope I can provide some historical context about what might happen next by providing two examples of managers who found themselves in a tailspin but survived…for a short period.
It’s important to highlight the sizeable differences in the way that we as supporters consume the game and share news and opinions. Social Media amplifies extreme views, meme culture ramps up anxiety and we seem to live in a more binary world with less room for nuance. Technology has furthered demands for instant fixes – amazon will deliver your parcel within 24 hours, your dinner can be with you in an instant. We’re not geared to be patient. It’s the way of the world. It wasn’t always.
It’s Autumn 1988. Terry Venables is approaching his 12-month anniversary since Irving Scholar persuaded him to return to White Hart Lane. Venables didn’t realise the magnitude of the rebuild required. Hoddle and Gough had left; Clemence and Ardiles were rapidly approaching retirement and Hodge and Clive Allen had contracts expiring at the end of the season. Under his predecessor, David Pleat, Spurs had let Roberts, Miller, Falco and Galvin leave the club. Even the undercard made up of promising young players had been sold – mostly to Norwich. Spurs were a mid-table team on the slide and lacking inspiration.
There was little new manager bounce – Spurs lost 11 of the 25 games in the remainder of the season which included a humiliating defeat at Port Vale in the FA Cup. Venables introduction of an aggressive and ultra-high defensive line was disastrous. They finished the season in 13th with new signings Mimms, Fenwick and Walsh having little impact despite their relatively high transfer fees.
By summer Venables ripped up his plans and instead played with a sweeper. There were subtle tweaks too – Venables wanted his defenders to show attackers in-field rather than out wide – as was customary.
Despite a huge investment over the summer – Spurs signed Gascoigne and Stewart – results didn’t improve. By the end of October Spurs were bottom of Division One having taken just seven points from ten games.
Irving Scholar reported finding Venables crying his eyes out in the toilets in the old West stand claiming that the fans had never taken to him as a player now they were turning against him as a manager.
Having made such a beeline for Venables there was little chance of Scholar now sacking him. Results improved – unbeaten in nine going into 1989 but the frailties were still there – dumped out of the FA Cup by Bradford and then new goalkeeper, Erik Thorstvedt (bought to replace Mimms who was clearly a dud) fumbled a Nigel Clough shot into his own goal on debut.
Spurs did rally though – Gascoigne hit form and his partnership with Waddle prospered. They finished the season in a respectable sixth place and this provided a foundation to build from. The following season, largely through the brilliance of Gascoigne and Lineker Spurs finished third and in 90/91 won the FA Cup when the competition was still revered. It had paid to back Venables. He may not have survived in an era of 24-hour rolling sports news and social media?
Fast forward six years. Gerry Francis replaced Ossie Ardiles to add a pragmatism to a squad front-loaded with attacking flair that simply couldn’t defend. Francis proved to be a ‘nearly man’ – his morose demeanour perhaps prophesised the bad luck he endured. At the end of his first season Klinsmann, Barmby and Popescu were all reluctantly sold and replaced by good but not great players. Despite this Spurs spent much of 95/96 in the top six only narrowly missing out on UEFA Cup qualification and knocked out of the FA Cup on penalties by Nottingham Forest in a fifth-round tie epic.
96/97 was a huge disappointment. English football was moving in but Spurs weren’t. Anderton and Armstrong missed most of the season through injury. Mabbutt broke his leg on the opening day of the season and Spurs’ season quickly unravelled by the turn of the year. Spurs were humiliated 6-1 at Bolton in the League Cup and were beaten 7-1 at Newcastle to end 1996. Newcastle manager Kevin Keegan was so haunted by the look on Francis’ face at the final whistle that he resigned within three weeks citing the incredible pressure placed on football managers. Spurs were in a tailspin – perhaps it was time to replace the increasingly haggard looking Spurs manager?
The FA Cup campaign lasted just one game. A freak set of injuries deprived Francis of his three senior centre forwards. Two teenagers, Rory Allen and Neale Fenn started in a 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford. Talisman Teddy Sheringham had clearly had enough too and he was allowed to leave in the summer.
Francis cut a dejected figure throughout most of 1997; there would have been more calls for him to go were it not for anger directed towards Alan Sugar. Francis did experiment with different systems – a back three was possible after the signings of Scales and Vega – but the former was injured two games after making his debut and the latter immediately looked well out of depth despite a £3.75m January transfer.
Relegation was never really a threat but Spurs won just three games in eleven between January and April meaning there were closer to the bottom three than the top six. Despite all the mitigation it was a thoroughly uninspiring time to watch Spurs. It didn’t take a soothsayer to recognise that this was a team going nowhere fast. Francis himself had had enough. He offered his resignation five games into the 97/98 season but Sugar convinced him to stay. A proud man, Francis looked broken, the team went through the motions until Francis did resign in November with Spurs now in the bottom three.
1997 was a miserable year. Spurs won eight of 32 league games, losing 17. It was relegation form. For all his faults, Sugar was always patient with his managers. Maybe too patient? Francis always spoke highly of the support he was given from his chairman. However, the signs were there for all to see and the tailspin induced at the end of 1996 never recovered.
How does this play out for Ange? You may well recognise some similarities with both Venables and Francis. I’d argue in the case of Venables it was absolutely right to stand by him through a turbulent time. Under Francis, there was lots of mitigation for the underwhelming performance but he should have been allowed to leave six months before he did.
The other great example of remaining patient to a manager was Keith Burkinshaw who took Spurs down to Division Two in 1977. Could that feasibly happen today? Even Bill Nicholson endured a difficult first season. I appreciate these are real outliers for a number of reasons.
My fellow podcaster Milo introduced to me the concept of an untestable hypothesis – we’ll never know what might have happened had Venables been sacked when Spurs were bottom. The next manager might have taken them down or perhaps with Gascoigne and then Lineker it was inevitable that better times were around the corner?
Likewise, were Francis to have left in early 1997 which different candidates might have been available? Could there have been a rally and Sheringham convinced to stay…or was the manager irrelevant with Sugar’s running of the club?
In both cases we’ll never know. Just as we’ll never know if Angeball will be sustainable with a fully fit and deeper squad if he was sacked. Equally if we stick with him and the team continue to underwhelm would a more ‘pragmatic’ coach have been able to achieve something this season?
To find out more about Spurs in the 1990s order my book Is Gascoigne Going To have a Crack? here (or via amazon) 90sspursbook.square.site. My second book, Hot Shot Tottenham -Spurs in the 80s will be out in Autumn 2025.
Follow me on X @garethdace or Bluesky @80s90sspursbooks.bsky.social
Inevitably my twitter feed was full last weekend of posts nostalgically remembering that it was exactly 16 years to the day since we beat Chelsea 2-1 in the (Carling) League Cup Final which of course was our last trophy success.
As well as provoking first-hand memories of the day and the occasion it naturally became an opportunity to lament our lack of tangible success since then. The most, in a gallows humour way, amusing take was the comment that ‘if Spurs’ trophy drought was a person they could now legally have sex’.
So why exactly haven’t we won a trophy since 2008?
Quite simply winning a trophy is bloody hard to do – not only do you need luck on your side but unless you have a squad depth of Chelsea, Liverpool or Man City you also have to prioritise cup ties throughout the season often at the expense of league games. Let’s take the successful 2008 League Cup campaign.
It started under Martin Jol in Autumn 2007. In round 3 we drew Middlesbrough at home. This was a fixture we tended to do well in and had won the previous three home games against Boro. By Round 4 Jol had left and Juande Ramos was in charge for his first home game – against second-tier Blackpool. Both games ended 2-0.
Under Ramos’ much maligned tenure we actually enjoyed some enjoyable months between December and the Wembley success in February winning five of six games in December including the 2-0 League Cup QF victory over Manchester City (in their pre-Sheikh Mansour form) which saw us through to a semi-final against Arsenal.
Let’s not take anything away from the semi-final result not least the emphatic 5-1 second leg at White Hart Lane – one of the most electric nights I can remember. We played well in the first leg at The Emirates and deserved more than the 1-1 draw but the way we blew them away at White Hart Lane was incredible. However, it can’t be ignored that Wenger selected a significantly under-strength side for the second leg just as Manchester United (that seasons champions) had when knocked out by Coventry in Round 3.
The final against Chelsea remains one of the best Spurs performances relative to opposition and the occasion. From the opening whistle it was clear that we were ‘on it’. Chelsea would go on to finish runners up in the Premier League and in the Champions League that season. We hoped that this was vindication of Ramos’ appointment – the ability to punch through the glass ceiling that had appeared to evade Martin Jol and his inability to cement a top 4 place (two successive 5th place finishes) and agonising cup exits to both Arsenal and Chelsea in 2007 when we were well placed to win both.
With the 2008 League Cup won and a place in the following seasons UEFA Cup secured there was little left to play for in the league. That season’s UEFA Cup campaign terminated in March with an unfortunate defeat to PSV on penalties and so the remainder of the season should have been about enjoying Keane and Berbatov and building momentum to go into 2008/09
What followed in the league was mediocre at best – for anyone who remembers watching Spurs through Spring 2008 it was embodiment of ‘being on the beach’.
Rather than producing the springboard Summer 2008 was traumatic – both Keane and Berbatov left in acrimonious circumstances – it developed into a dramatic false dawn and eight games into the new league season Spurs sat bottom of the league for the first time since 1988.
Essentially, winning the 2008 League Cup had failed to make any material difference to Spurs’ fortunes.
That’s not to diminish the visceral joy of winning a cup for both players and particularly for fans. The fact that the footage of 2008 sparked so many happy memories is a reminder that football is for fans and those unbridled moments of joy can last a lifetime. However, from the club’s perspective success in 2008 didn’t allow them to keep their best players let alone act as a catalyst to attract better new players. Neither did it create the winning mentality that supposedly ‘winning the first cup’ provides.
This is common with the other cup winners from outside the cartel of established forces (Arsenal, Manchester Utd, Liverpool) and the nouveau riche (Chelsea and Manchester City).
Middlesbrough (League Cup 2004) Portsmouth (FA Cup 2008), Birmingham (League Cup 2011), Swansea (League Cup 2013) and Wigan (FA Cup 2013) were all relegated within five years of their cup successes.
Since 2008 Spurs have been to three finals – 2009 v Manchester United, 2015 v Chelsea and 2021 v Manchester City. On each of those occasions they have lost narrowly and failed to score in each but on each occasion the winners went onto become League Champions (and in both Manchester clubs’ cases Champions League finalists) that season.
Spurs have also been to the semi-finals twice – 2019 and 2022 – both against Chelsea; the former saw a penalty shoot-out defeat while the latter was more emphatic. The other 11 knock-outs have come against:
Manchester United (2010 Round 4), Arsenal (2011 and 2015 – R3), Liverpool (2016 R4), West Ham (2013 R5, 2017 R4), Stoke (2011/12 R3), Norwich (2012/13 R4), Colchester (2019/20 R3), Nottingham Forest (2022/23 R4) and Fulham (2023/24 R2).
In all bar the defeats to Manchester Utd in (09/10) and Fulham (23/24) – the latter a penalty shoot-out – Spurs were juggling midweek games with European commitments. Though not an excuse all managers including Ange have failed to find the correct formula in balancing the need to rotate players with having a sufficiently strong and coherent enough XI on the pitch to win games.
There have been some very obvious failures – the most embarrassing being the penalty defeat to Colchester. West Ham somehow turned around a 2-goal deficit at Wembley in October 2017 just the week before Spurs beat Real Madrid in the Champions League and perhaps the most frustrating was the 2012 loss at Norwich where Spurs led 1-0 through Bale; this defeat particularly irritates as it was the season that Swansea ended up beating Bradford in the final.
On the whole successive Spurs teams and managers have not had the strength of squad available to be able to navigate the early rounds of the League Cup while also attempting to maintain Top-4 league form and also progressing in European group stages.
However, the point should be emphasised that the League Cup since the mid-2000s has been increasingly difficult to win due to the importance placed on them by the best teams and their respective managers.
The League Cup was much maligned during the 90s and its reputation (it was nicknamed the ‘Worthless Cup’ whilst sponsored by Worthington’s when Spurs won it in 1999 owing to the top clubs’ decision to regularly select reserve and youth team players) arguably has never recovered.
Between 1996 and 2004 the average end league position of the cup winners was 7.22 – during this period Spurs were successful in 1999 and other winners included Leicester City (twice), Blackburn (at Spurs’ expense!) and Middlesbrough.
1986-1995
1996 – 2004
2005 – 2014
2015 – 2024
Oxford (18)
Aston Villa (4)
Chelsea (1)
Chelsea (1)
Arsenal (4)
Leicester (9)
Manchester Utd (2)
Manchester C (4)
Nottingham Forest (3)
Chelsea (4)
Chelsea (2)
Manchester Utd (6)
Nottingham Forest (9)
Tottenham (11)
Tottenham (11)
Manchester C (1)
Sheffield Weds (23)
Leicester (8)
Manchester Utd (1)
Manchester C (1)
Manchester Utd (2)
Liverpool (3)
Manchester Utd (2)
Manchester C (2)
Arsenal (10)
Blackburn (10)
Birmingham (18)
Manchester C (1)
Aston Villa (10)
Liverpool (5)
Liverpool (8)
Liverpool (2)
Liverpool (4)
Middlesbrough (11)
Swansea (9)
Manchester Utd (3)
Manchester C (1)
Liverpool (TBC)
9.2
7.2
5.5
2.1
In the 10 years before that (1986-1995) the average league position of the winners was 9.2 – though this is exaggerated by Sheffield Wednesday – then in the second division beating Manchester United in 1991.
From 2005 that began to change. Jose Mourinho’s first trophy was the League Cup when his Chelsea side (that would go on to win the league) beat Liverpool in Cardiff. Apart from Spurs (11th) beating Chelsea in 2008 the subsequent five seasons saw either the champions or runners up lifting the League Cup. Spurs help to skew the numbers as over the 10-year period 2005 – 2014 the average league position of the winners is 5.5 (and further skewed by Birmingham’s shock victory over Arsenal in 2011!)
The trend has continued into the past 10-year cycle and furthered by Pep Guardiola’s commitment to silverware. The average league position of League Cup winners is now as low as 2.33 (and may be lower should Liverpool go on to win the league). Pep has won in four successive years (in which City were champions on three occasions). Chelsea also won the League Cup and went onto become Champions in 2015. During this period the lowest a League Cup winner has finished in the league was 6th and that Mourinho’s Manchester United in 2017 who also went onto win the Europa League that season.
The FA Cup is slightly different because in contrast to what you might think the competition hasn’t been dominated by the best couple of teams in recent years or at least that’s what the numbers suggest.
Between 1986 and 1995 it was a largely open field with Coventry (sorry) and Wimbledon both winning against the odds. Everton (15th) and Manchester Utd in 1990 (13th) both came from outside the top half of the table and even Spurs in 1991 only finished the season 10th.
From 1996 – 2004 every winner finished in the top 6 with four incidents of the league champions completing a double. Between 2005 – 2014 the pattern largely repeated but for two outliers in Portsmouth in 2008 (8th) and Wigan in 2013 (18th) winning.
In the most recent period (2015 – 2023) the average league position of the winner has increased to 5th place though there is rationale behind that which is that the ‘Big X’ has increased from four dominant teams to six (if you include Spurs). Arsenal (8th) in 2020 were the lowest placed winners during this period.
Reaching an FA Cup Final has also got harder – for the latter three periods the average league position of the runners-up has been 10th or 11th. Since 2015 that has changed to 7th.
Should Spurs get beaten at Manchester City on Saturday night (and I don’t think I’m speaking out of turn to suggest that this seems quite an inevitable outcome for most Spurs fans) it will be a 4th successive league defeat; the first time Spurs have suffered such ignominy since 2004.
This may not be the end of it – the cliched tough trip to Burnley awaits the following midweek and then Spurs travel to Elland Road for a fixture in which they were thoroughly outplayed in last season and were somewhat fortuitous to win the home game back in November. That said, the streak could end at The Etihad – after all Southampton and Crystal Palace have all taken points home this season and Spurs ourselves have held our nerve to collect points there recently too.
A streak of 4 successive wins or losses is to some extent an arbitrary number but it is enough games to highlight a particular trend. The fixture list can throw up kind or nasty runs of games but it is unlikely that an upper half team, should face 4 successive horrible fixtures and with the relative strength of the Premier League it is improbable that you would have 4 absolute gimme’s. Thus to win 4 games in a row you probably have to be quite good and to lose 4 indicates some not insignificant concerns.
Taking this run of 4 fixtures for Spurs included the perennial graveyard that is Stamford Bridge and is bookended by a trip to the reigning Champions Manchester City. In between, presented two fixtures that Spurs could have expected, based on recent results against the same teams, to collect at least 4 points. To lose twice at home against teams lower in the table was largely unthinkable but when sandwiched between the two away trips presents an unfortunate opportunity to create unwanted history.
The last time Spurs recorded 4 or more successive defeats came in Autumn 2004. The run is split evenly between the end of Jacques Santini’s inauspicious spell in N17 and Jol’s spell – a 1-0 defeat at Portsmouth, followed by 1-2 home defeat to Bolton and then a dismal 2-0 loss at Fulham. Santini resigned on the eve of the home game with Charlton which Spurs lost 3-2 despite a gallant second half comeback; then came an incredible but fruitless 4-5 home loss in the North London derby before succumbing 1-0 at Aston Villa – a fixture that Spurs rarely picked up many points.
In fairness to Jol, and that Spurs team, it is worth noting that Spurs would then go on a 5-game winning streak (more on that follow) where results then evened out through the remainder of the season.
For Spurs, a club, who throughout the Premier League, have an (median) average end position of 7th, you would therefore expect to see a fair amount of inconsistency neither winning or losing in particularly long streaks in the same way that you would expect of Manchester City – who jointly hold the record of 18 consecutive PL wins in the early part of the 2017/18 season on route to their 100-point season (Liverpool equalled this in Winter 2019). By contrast, Sunderland, hold the infamous losing streak of 15 in 2002-03.
Looking back through Spurs’ list of results from 1992 until well into the 21st century you see lots of inconsistent results. Displayed as the standard RAG table there is plenty of green, orange and red connections.
Prior to this weekend’s match with Manchester City Spurs have been on the wrong end of a 4-game ‘L’ streak on 5 separate occasions. The most recent is the aforementioned run in 2004. As perhaps you would expect the other occasions occurred in seasons in which relegation was a very real possibility (2003/04 – 2 times; 1997/8 and 1993/4). The latter provides Spurs’ worst ever streak of 7 consecutive defeats from New Years Day 1994 until a home draw with Aston Villa on 1st March. During that period Spurs were also dumped out of both domestic cups only getting past 3rd tier Peterborough on penalties in a replay at White Hart Lane).
7-game loss streak Jan – Feb 1994
1/1 Coventry HOME 1-2 3/1 Sheffield Weds AWAY 0-1 15/1 Manchester Utd HOME 0-1 22/1 Swindon AWAY 1-2 5/2 Sheffield Weds HOME 1-3 12/2 Blackburn HOME 0-2 27/2 Chelsea AWAY 3-4
Spurs have achieved 4-game winning streaks on 20 occasions which may be slightly more than you’d initially thought. This sort of run of good form is, as you’d imagine, very sporadic throughout the first half of the Premier League era. A Teddy Sheringham inspired run of 5 League wins in Spring 1993 was the first and the next followed in the early part of 1995/96 when Gerry Francis’ hit peak form. Spurs hit the unheralded heights of 3rd place in the first part of that season before predictably falling away after Christmas.
You then have to go forward 9 years until the previously mentioned rollercoaster of results under Santini and Jol. Following defeat to Aston Villa Jol’s team recorded 5 wins which included a then customary win at Manchester City (then just ‘Eastlands’).
It is from this point in the mid 00’s that Spurs started to take themselves more seriously and over the next 15 years would shifted the average league finish from 10th (1993-2005) to 5th (2006-2021). This, by nature resulted in better, and more consistently better results.
From 2009/10 until 2018/19 Spurs would achieve at least one 4-game winning streak in all bar 2 seasons. In the 6 ‘Top 4’ seasons they would record a run of 4 straight wins. The famous 2016/17 season which culminated in 86 points and an unbeaten home record contained a run of 9 successive victories as we attempted to chase down Chelsea between February and May. Additionally that season saw a 6-game and a 4-game winning streak.
The 9-game winning streak (PL games only) Feb – May 2017
26/2 Stoke City HOME 4-0 5/3 Everton HOME 3-2 19/3 Southampton HOME 2-1 1/4 Burnley AWAY 2-0 5/4 Swansea AWAY 3-1 8/4 Watford HOME 4-0 15/4 Bournemouth HOME 4-0 26/4 Crystal Palace AWAY 1-0 30/4 Arsenal HOME 2-0
The last of the 20 ‘W’ streaks to occur was during the 2018/19 season. In fact there were 3 throughout the season – you may recall this as the ‘undrawable season’ in which it tool until March for Spurs’ first draw. What preceded this was largely a run of wins with a loss thrown in for good measure only to be repeated by a string of wins. The most recent came in January 2019 with four fairly stodgy victories over Fulham and Watford (both stoppage time wins), Newcastle and Leicester (who missed a penalty).
Spurs slept walked into Champions League qualification that season whilst also reaching the final of the same competition in what became, unbeknown at the time, the beginning of the end for Pochettino.
From analysisng the trends there is a very direct correlation – when we have recorded 4-game winning streaks we have at least seriously knocked on the door of Champions League qualification. In the years in which we have recorded 4-game L streaks we have usually flirted with relegation.
The one notable exception was that 2004-05 (the only season where Spurs have had a positive and negative 4-game streak) spell of results where one rather counteracted the other and the net result was a 9th place finish.
Therefore studying 4-game streaks is quite a useful tool in analsying where we are and what might happen. I’m pretty sure that even the most Eeyore of Spurs fans will not be contemplating away trips to Rotherham and Preston next season should the inevitable happen at Manchester City at the weekend. However, 4-game streaks are invariably a decent barometer; perhaps we will follow up with an equally positive run of results – away trips to Burnley and Leeds, home to Everton and then away at Old Trafford could feasibly return 4 wins.
Having looked at other clubs data its very clear that recording a 4-game streak is indicative of a consistent season. Going back to 2011 every team that has finished in the top 4 positions has recorded at least one 4-game win streak. The last not to do so was Arsenal in 2011. Whilst researching this I was reminded that Leicester won 8 successive games in 2019/20 but still only finished 5th.
Therefore the conclusion is that until we can put together 4+ wins on the bounce I do not expect to hear Champions League music blasted around Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Both Arsenal and West Ham have done so already this season. It is this pursuit of consistency that is most needed.
When you think of Spurs in the premier league era what do you consider to be the average? Not the best of spurs and not the worst – just that smack bang in the middle Spurs. Therefore, don’t be drawn to the peak Pochettino era of league title challenges, unbeaten home seasons and Champions League football. Equally, don’t let your mind take you to the relegation scraps of 1994 and 1998, 2 points from 8 games or 6-0 defeats at Sheffield United. Think about the players who occupy that middle ground – not Klinsmann, Kane, Gary Doherty or Jason Cundy.
Statistically you should be thinking of the current iteration of Tottenham Hotspur – or more specifically (as far as league performances go) the last 3 calendar year cycle from 2019 to the current day.
Let me first explain the significance of a 3-year cycle as it is essentially an arbitrary time period. I always felt that 2018 becoming 2019 in hindsight saw a dramatic downturn in results and performances; taking the Champions League run aside the last really great performance under Pochettino was the 6-2 victory at Everton on 23 December. A result that in hindsight remains the swansong of an incredible era.
Although the early part of 2019 did see some good results (four successive league wins against Fulham, Leicester, Newcastle and Watford in spite of some fairly turgid, if not determined performances) the team sleepwalked into 4th spot following this. It is therefore convenient on my part to start and end cycles at this point. Additionally a ‘3 year cycle’ is often discussed, even if it is not scientifically tested as a definitive period of time in which a team, under one or multiple coaches evolves with players travelling through natural physical peaks.
I have therefore retrofitted the last 30 calendar years into ten 3-year cycles calculating the average number of points won per game and how that translates into a 38 game season.
Table 1: breakdown of 3-year cycles with average number of points in a 38-game season calculated
Years
Ave pts per game
Season points equivalent
1992-1994
1.25
47.57
1995-1997
1.33
50.67
1998-2000
1.32
50
2001-2004
1.26
47.84
2004-2006
1.51
57.33
2007-2009
1.35
51.45
2010-2012
1.75
66.67
2013-2015
1.81
68.60
2016-2018
2.11
80.30
2019-2021
1.59
60.59
ALL (1992 – 2021)
1.53
57.99
The bottom row shows the average across the entire 30-year period – that is 1.53 pts per game which accounts to 58 points per season.
Graph A – average points gained per season based on 3 year cycleGraph B – average points per game as a full 38-game season equivalent
The teams of the 90’s produced mediocre results despite the likes of Klinsmann, Sheringham, Anderton and Ginola being part of them.
If you look at the breakdown of 3-year cycles you’ll notice that the period closest to that overall average is the most recent one – 2019- 2021.
Time will not fondly recall the 2019-2021 period but perhaps more due to the contrast to the cycle immediately prior – for the last 3 years we have undoubtedly been coming down the mountain. Indeed 2.11 – 1.59 (0.62 difference) is by far the biggest variance, positive or negative over the 30-year period covered.
This blog is not intended to be one to judge the merits of ENIC but the trajectory from 2001 (when they took ownership of the club) had, until 2019 been a largely upwards one.
Therefore it is fair to say that over the long-term this current team is an average reflection of Spurs in the Premier League era which prior to Pochettino was mostly a struggle to break out of mid table and a holy grail of finishing anywhere near European qualification.
In trying to present an objective argument I’ll now talk you through some subjective thinking that perhaps backs up what the data is telling us. Dier, Davies, Sanchez, Winks and Lucas Moura were peripheral members of the peak Poch era starting XI. Whilst some of these have improved and/or fulfil functionary roles they are definite starters when available now (or at least towards the end of the 2019-2021 cycle). We know that recruitment has been poor and quite simply this team is nowhere near as good as its immediate predecessors.
However, the data tells us that this current team is closer but slightly better in performance to it’s 2004-2006 version. This was the Martin Jol period. Of course tactically its very difficult to compare but this is roughly the strongest XI based on appearances made.
2004-06
2019-21
Robinson
Lloris
Stalteri
Aurier*
YP Lee
Davies
Dawson
Alderweireld*
King
Sanchez
Carrick
Sissoko*
Jenas
Winks
Brown
Dele*
Lennon
Lucas Moura
Keane
Son
Defoe
Kane
By chance the 2004-06 team is virtually the team that played through most of the 2005-06 Lasagnegate season where you’ll recall we were desperately unfortunate not to finish in 4th place albeit the 67 points Arsenal eventually gained is below the average of 71 pts usually required.
Because many of the players still exist who had been part of the golden Poch era it is easier to compare the current group to them but actually we should be taking ourselves back in time and asking what we would have expected when looking forward to a match circa 2005.
On the whole though we have a squad available that is limited and like its 2004-2006 equivalent should be occupying the positions somewhere around 5th/6th spot. A team that finishes in these positions will by nature have flaws and will remain inconsistent – I suspect two home defeats to Wolves and Southampton is below par; draws with Liverpool and a win against Manchester City would be an overachievement.
As ever hard date provides entirely objective outcomes. The eye test and those visceral emotions can provide just as useful answers. For me, trying to combine both, what is stark is the drop off seen over the last cycle which we are still feeling now. Whereas in the 2004-2006 period (especially once Jol took over) there was undeniably a feeling of a young team in development that hit an upward trajectory. The vibe around White Hart Lane on 31st December 2006 was significantly more optimistic than it had been on 1st January 2004.
We are now into the next cycle (2022-2024) and the data sample size is of course just too small (for the record we are recording just 1.2 points per game) to draw any conclusions. We do not yet know at what point we will plateau from our fall from grace – one suspects the sheer force of nature that Conte provides plus the financial support provided by the stadium income means that we should start to `build a base to climb from again soon.
Perhaps it should be some encouragement that 4 of the Cycle of 2019-2021 have been moved on at the club’s will (Alderweireld, Sissoko, Dele, Aurier). Romero and Bentancur should prove to be upgrades on Alderweireld and Sissoko respectively (at least based on their 2019-2021 form and ability). It is clear that a new right back/right wing back and a creative midfielder are urgently needed.
We must hope that Skipp and Reguilon continue to improve but by the end of 2024 Kane, Son and Lloris (if still at the club) will be past their best and will need to have been replaced.
This is without doubt the biggest on-field challenge facing ENIC since they took over in 2001 in addressing the slide. It would not require a hugely significant upturn in performances and results to be up and above 1.8 pts per game again and with a world-class Coach at the club this shouldn’t be impossible. However, the painful rebuild, is well underway and that will mean some uncomfortable times ahead.
These are my kind of people (not ‘theirs’) so join me in supporting them by Steffan Chirazi
Today, for the first time in my life, MY England football team will compete in a major final, the European Championship. I am only partially speaking about the football here, because in many other ways, this specific England squad is also the first in my lifetime which feels like a squad that represents MY values. They take a knee in support of anti-racism and supporting the fight against black oppression. The captain has proudly worn a rainbow armband. One of the squad veterans wore rainbow boot laces. One of the young superstar forwards was single-handedly behind a campaign which embarrassed the current British government into ensuring that free school meals continued for all children (that same forward has also worked with homeless charities). They speak with media freely, there have been no displays of petulance or superstardom, and they are led by a manager who carries himself with empathy and respect wherever he goes and whatever he speaks of. Hard to imagine saying any of that about the Sven Goran Eriksson Gerrard/Lampard days now isn’t it…
We are emerging from covid19.
Sort of.
Confusion, inconsistency and hypocrisy is starting to run riot.
So many things have remained shut down, or under strict rules, yet Euro 2020 has circumvented it all. That’s a discussion for another time (I think it is insanity personally) but it is a fact.
Some people, well, many, are very, very annoyed about it.
We are also finding our feet in the ‘real’ Brexit world. Again, a discussion for another time (for the record I was full-remain and think Brexit is insanity) but it is a fact.
Those two facts above -added to the further fact that tomorrow’s Euro 2020 final against Italy art Wembley is the first major final/event where there will be a close to capacity crowd since covid19 ‘began’ in early 2020 makes the day a powder keg.
Emotions are already running high, and within minutes of beating Denmark, the internet (and my FB feed) were tripping over themselves to launch a chunk of vitriol or a lump of spite, miserable digs, joy-thievery of the cheapest kind. Such is modern society I suppose, where the internet and it’s trolling is seen as ‘part of the deal.’
Let me make one thing clear to you, the person reading this.
I abhor racism.
I detest homophobia.
I love Europe (I love the world actually).
I despise flag-gammons who blurt on about Brexit and Farage and ‘fuck foreigners’ and ‘our cuntry’ and who spit on Danish children and insult Danish women, I have always despised them and I have always stood up to them, from the days I’d go to England matches and find myself telling morons vomiting ‘no surrender to the IRA’ to shut the fuck up and go somewhere else if they needed to relieve themselves via their mouths.
I know the filthy imperialist history and I am ashamed of it.
Wankers like that ingrate MP who won’t watch because of the knee, or our band-wagon PM do not act in my name.
THAT is not MY England, it is not the England I think of, and it is not the England which represents me ANY MORE than Trump and MAGA-hat Trumpers are not the US.
MY England is one of tolerance.
Acceptance.
Standing up to racism and homophobia where I can.
Recognizing everyone’s rights whatever colour they are and however they find themselves wired sexually.
Standing up against misogyny and recognizing the rights, beauty and power of women in our society.
Trying to remember -and do something for- the less unfortunate and homeless people in our society.
Enjoying a bloody good singing session at the football.
Enjoying a laugh.
Enjoying the company of my mates as we strive to win.
Celebrating victories loudly.
Enduring defeats with sadness and frustration which quickly gives way to the reality that life is life, people are people and someone has to lose just as someone has to win.
There will doubtless, sadly, be some stupidity tomorrow. This is not just the nature of life, it is going to be the net result of a nation collectively engaging in such a historic, post-Brexit, post-covid19 event. In victory or defeat I will be what I always am in person – gracious (maybe a bit chatty but gracious!), finding a smile if one needs to be dug up (hopefully it will be a case of cheek-aches on Monday) and more than ready to stand up for ANYONE who is on the receiving end of ANY poor behaviour (this is a life thing).
So if England beat Italy tomorrow and win our first major trophy as a footballing nation since before I was born, I’d like to humbly ask that you feel happy for me. Send congratulations. Recognise that I am someone who does the same in kind. Appreciate that for me, this would be an enormous event in my life, and one which would give me tremendous happiness…ooops, there I am being selfish, because I am NOT just talking about me, I am talking about the MILLIONS of decent, nice and good English people who you don’t hear about on the internet, or read about in the papers.
The first time I ever saw England live in person was in 1980, at Wembley, when Argentina came to town. I have seen them in several different places, but mostly Wembley. This is very real for me.
And when I sing ‘football’s coming home’ or ‘Vindaloo’, it is with fun, hope, joy and that glorious combination of pride and self-deprecation that many of us English have always mastered so well.
It isn’t to wind you up and it isn’t arrogance, OK?
So don’t let a few arseholes take this away from me, or the millions I mentioned.
Don’t empower or enable them.
Please recognize that joy in our country (if we win) this does not mean we feel the same about life or the world as gammon-flag-wavers or the stupid, thick minority who choose these moments to inflict misery on others.
I’d appreciate it, I really would…COME ON ENGLAND!!!!
It is ironic that having written this article between Wednesday and Sunday last week about the impact of Recency Bias I now feel that the football world is a much happier place having beaten Leicester and finished above Arsenal. With this concept in mind I invite you back into my mind pre-Sunday……
In my Spurs supporting lifetime I can’t remember feeling any lower than I have since Wednesday night. I know I am not alone but the definitive conclusion of ‘never have felt more disconnected’ is likely to be the result of recency bias.
Let me firstly just try, for cathartic purposes, explain why I feel in such a loveless relationship. It was my first visit to watch a game since December and only the second in 15 months. Something that has been a routine in my life, certainly since buying my first season ticket in 2002, should have got me chomping at the bit to return. Yet, somehow has kick off approached I felt so little enthusiasm and excitement. Perhaps it was the terrible drive through rush hour traffic that didn’t help? No, the feeling of apathy had set in long before that.
Tim Sherwood
My feelings of lethargy seemed to be matched by the players. From 15 minutes we became a more inferior team – confidence and energy sapped. There was a will to reverse the score but the palpable emotions on and off the pitch were of frustration and resentment. The chorus of boos at full-time I felt were not directly primarily at the players and not exclusively at Daniel Levy – it was an outpouring of helplessness and utter frustration.
I have expressed to many people since then my extreme feelings of disconnect with the club. The ESL decision is amongst that but it more the complete lack of proactive communication and the inability once again for ENIC to ‘read the room’ that hurts me. I am what is becoming known as a ‘legacy fan’ – I don’t feel that I am their target market segment and If I’m honest I haven’t done for as much as I can remember. However, this has never stopped me coming back and I’m embarrassed to admit that I renewed my season ticket the day applications opened.
However, it is the disconnect with the team that is my predominant emotional trigger. I am not pointing out anything that has not been observed and discussed by anyone else. The lack of intensity, the lack of a plan, the lack of confidence, the lack of belief. Subjectively we have a good but not outstanding group of players but a squad that with the right motivation and direction be challenging in and around 4th place. I think 5th is par and there is no disgrace in this though it is undoubtedly a regression on where we have been since 2017.
If we’re honest the bar that was set in 2017 was incredibly high and it was always going to be a challenge to maintain the standards of winning 86 points in a season. Sunday 13 May 2017 was the high point – both for on the field success but for a general feeling of togetherness between fans, players and manager and owners.
If ever there was going to be a breakout of “Daniel Levy he’s one of our own’ it would have been at this point. The send-off to White Hart Lane was a poignant one that had been planned and executed beautifully; it was ostensibly a send off to an iconic venue that for many of us had been a second home and one that provided cherished memories for both what we had seen on the pitch and more importantly the relationships we formed off it.
Part of me wonders what those celebrations would have looked and felt like had the timing been different – what if we’d finished 2016/17 season as we had this year? It is mostly a coincidence that the send off to our cherished home occurred in our most successful season on it.
Fast forward 4 years – the global pandemic has created several very obvious nuances that affected the feel of the final home game of the season just as they did in 2020 when a 3-0 victory over Leicester took place in front of an empty stadium – but the feeling around the club could not be at a more polar opposite. The ongoing speculation around Harry Kane creates another black cloud that circles above us and until a new manager is appointed it is hard to develop any excitement for what might come next.
However, my point is that we’ve been here before – that feeling of staleness and hopelessness. Unless you started following Spurs in 2015 you’ve definitely been through what you’re feeling now and whilst the memory of how good it was in 2017 is a stark reminder of the failures on and off the pitch since also remember that it didn’t take much to get us to that point.
Using the final home game of the season as a consistent time marker of despondency let me just share some of the bleak times that I have experienced and please use this list to reflect and finally just to remember that as a club we suffer peaks and troughs that unlike many of our contemporaries (Villa, West Ham, Newcastle, Leeds, Nottingham Forest) only ever seem to flatline in midtable.
2014 – Aston Villa home 3-0
‘The Sherwood season’ – this was a depressing season that, again using recency bias, tends to be the most we benchmark the current season against. We’d actually started 2013/14 in the post Bale era under AVB relatively well on the pitch winning most games but in an undefined and unspectacular manner until several heavy defeats pre-Christmas saw Sherwood take over. Despite an initial bounce it soon became clear Sherwood was as much of a buffoon as feared and his self-aggrandisement and limited tactical approach meant that the second half meandered on with players and fans in a similar state of malaise. The introduction of young players Nabil Bentaleb and the clumsy looking forward Harry Kane provided some hope for the future but the season really couldn’t end quick enough.
The final day of the season did provide a comprehensive victory – in fact we had won our 4 final home games of the season (Southampton, Sunderland, Fulham and Villa) and maintained a top 6 finish.
Pos
Team
G
W
D
L
F
A
Pts
4
Arsenal
38
24
7
7
68
41
79
5
Everton
38
21
9
8
61
39
72
6
Tottenham Hotspur
38
21
6
11
55
51
69
7
Manchester United
38
19
7
12
64
43
64
8
Southampton
38
15
11
12
54
46
56
9
Stoke City
38
13
11
14
45
52
50
10
Newcastle United
38
15
4
19
43
59
49
2014 – Final Premier League table
2004 – Blackburn 1-0
What an endurance 2003/4 had become. It started with the Hoddle era running on fumes and then under the stewardship of David Pleat as a Caretaker manager widely ridiculed by players and fans alike the season. Daniel Levy, then in his embryonic period as Chairman, promised a big-name manager but that the appointment could wait until the end of the season (which coming in September meant that the season was effectively a write-off). That Woolwich would record their Invincible season made matters even worse but we were in serious danger of being sucked into a relegation battle as late as April. Therefore, the very end of the season provided enough feeling of genuine relief that the final game of the season against mid-table Blackburn provided a feeling of happy mediocrity.
The Hoddle era was beginning to unravel quickly. The 2002-3 season had begun positively but a series of injuries and a lack of intensity and physical condition amongst an ageing group of players (Sheringham and Poyet) meant that Keane and King aside 2003 became a real endurance. Were it not for Hoddle’s status feelings could have turned sourer even more quickly, The end of the season saw us go into our penultimate home game of the season actually wanting to lose at home to Manchester Utd in order to deny Woolwich a league title. Naturally United won comfortably 2-0. The final two games of the season resulted in a 5-1 defeat at Middlesbrough and then an ugly 0-4 reversal at home to Blackburn which included Poyet receiving a red card and young winder Matt Etherington involved in a verbal dispute with a fan in the East Lower. I’m sure this must have happened in other years but the touchline was littered with season ticket books at full-time – always a futile gesture when the book had already become superfluous by nature of it being the final game.
This moment had parallels to now as well. Teddy Sheringham had been our talisman though he had missed much of this season through injury and had also found himself in a dysfunctional attacking system that even when on form was undone by some gormless defending and a lack of structure in midfield. Teddy’s demeanour during the latter half of the season was that of a player who felt he had outgrown the rest of the team around him and justifiably saw that his ambitions were more likely to be achieved elsewhere. For me the 1996/7 season was the benchmark for Spurs mediocrity during the period. There was no ability to string 3 results together, rarely did we show up outside of the M25 and the inevitable exit from the FA Cup signalled the end of the season. The team looked tired and uninspired and Coventry City, who almost 10 years to the day previous had enjoyed their most famous day at Spurs expense, came to White Hart lane knowing that even a win may not be enough to keep them in the division. If Social Media memes had been a thing in 1997 then Dr Tottenham would have trended in the days immediately prior and after the final match of the season. Coventry roared into a 2-0 lead for Paul McVeigh to score his one and only Spurs goal in response. There was little riding on the game for Spurs other than absent pride – another feature of the era.
Sheringham did depart the club that summer and went on to do rather well at Old Trafford before returning 4 years later.
On each occasion the manager at the time, if in place at all, has failed to turn around a sinking ship. It has taken an appointment like Redknapp, Jol or Poch to breathe life back into the team, but also to give the fans a hope and belief again. In all the latter examples (of the ENIC era) the darkest hour has always been followed a stark improvement not just to the results – though they undeniably have a knock-on effect – but to a wider positive feeling and we must hope that for all of us supporting Spurs will become fun again very soon.
What we are feeling now is not a new feeling and I challenge you reach the conclusion that you’ve had it worse in the past……and the reminder that football is cyclical. We’re all in for the long haul so we’ll feel it again too.
For the 31st consecutive year Spurs fans will wake up on the day of FA Cup Final with little, if any, interest or intrigue in the forthcoming showpiece event in the sporting calendar.
18th May 1991 was the last time FA Cup Final day was relevant for us when quite frankly the world was a very different place….Cher was top of the Charts with The Shoop Shoop Song, no homes in the UK had access to the world wide web and Harry Kane was not even a twinkle in his parents’ eyes.
As a 10-year-old who was just into my third year as a fully-fledged Spurs (and football) supporter I assumed that this day would come around frequently. I was totally consumed by our successes in the competition going back to 1901. If you include replays the ten years prior to ‘91 provided 5 FA Cup Final Day’s to look forward to.
Since our last appearance in 1991 no fewer than 21 clubs’ set of fans have experienced seeing their team appear in an FA Cup Final. 21 clubs is just a little less than 25% of the entire Football League pyramid. Finalists since ’91 have included Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Millwall, Cardiff, Portsmouth, Wigan, Hull City, Crystal Palace and Watford – all of whom have spent at least half of that 30-year period outside of the top flight).
It is actually absurd that Spurs have not made one final – despite the ‘magic of the cup’ rhetoric the better teams tend to reach finals and win it. Spurs are one of only 6 clubs to appeared in the top division for each of those 30 intervening seasons and have mostly finished in the top half at least. They are a real outlier in a list of clubs not to have appeared in an FA Cup Final during the period. The only other clubs to have played in the Division 1/Premier League for 10 or more seasons and not to have reached a final are:
Blackburn Rovers (18 seasons)
Fulham (15)
Leeds United (14)
Bolton (13)
WBA (13)
But what has happened that has prevented Spurs from building on their 1991 success which at the time was a record 8th occasion to have won the famous competition?
Why is the FA Cup relevant?
Firstly, let’s consider the importance and significance of winning the FA Cup. I have resigned myself, as a staunch traditionalist, that this is not a competition that ultimately progresses you as a Football Club. Since ENIC took over 20 years ago only seven different teams have won the competition – 5 of the established ‘Top 6’ and the other two being Portsmouth and Wigan – both have subsequently languished in the lower divisions. Even Arsenal’s recent FA Cup successes (4 since 2014) have not done anything to propel them back to the heights of English football – if anything that have acted as a detriment to their league form which has seen them drop out of the Top 4 positions since 2016.
To give a domestic real-life analogy putting all your eggs into the FA Cup basket is akin to wanting to book a Family Holiday to Disneyworld instead of having a new kitchen fitted. Two weeks in Orlando will be magnificent for the kids and you’ll remember it affectionately for a long time but the new kitchen will enable you to put a healthy meal on the table every night and ultimately will help you to sell the house in a few years’ time. The stars have not yet aligned in N17 for both to happen.
Speak to any football fan over 40 years old and they will tell you how they dreamed of scoring the winner in an FA Cup Final at Wembley, how FA Cup Final day was akin to Christmas Day with round the clock coverage on both the UK’s main terrestrial TV stations. It’s also worth remembering the football landscape and how it was consumed. Until the birth of the Premier League and Sky Sports’ involvement in 1992 armchair football fans would receive live on their televisions on average less than 1 live game per week.
There was no Champions League as we now know it with its predecessor, The European Cup, involving just one club per country and in a straight knock out format so once the English team were knocked out there was little further interest in the competition. Additionally, there was no European football for any English clubs between 1985 and 1990. So, apart from up to 30 live 1st division matches the only live football accessible on TV was one game per FA Cup round, the League Cup Semi-Finals and Final and the odd England game. Following ‘less is more theory’ the FA Cup Final was therefore something of a novelty often taking place on famously glorious sunny May Saturday afternoons. It was very likely the most significant live match on TV in the football calendar.
The current (pre Covid) broadcasting rights saw 160 live Premier League games in addition to each and every one of the 92 Champions League matches (from group stage onwards) plus Europa League Games and League Cup games before you even start to add in the 5+ games per round available from the FA Cup. Therefore, by the time middle May comes around even the most hardened armchair fan would be suffering from fatigue.
Without the carrot and incredible riches provided by the Champions League – once its participation was extended to 3 and then 4 clubs in England post 2001 – clubs were far less commercially driven and so success was far more tangible for its on-field achievements. By Christmas clubs invariably knew whether they have any chance of winning the league – but unless you were amongst one of maybe two or three times – the lure of winning the FA Cup could take precedence by the time the 3rd round weekend comes around in early January. There was little tangible difference between finishing 4th and 16th in the old Division 1.
Participation in the Champions League is of far greater financial importance than winning the FA Cup – there is perhaps even a case for extending that to Europa League qualification too. From a purely financial perspective there is simply no comparison:
Competition
£
FA Cup Winners
£1.8m
Champions League Group Stage
£12m
Europa League Group Stage
£2.2m
It’s got much harder to win
From looking at the winners of the FA Cup since 1991 and then comparing this to the same time period prior to 1991 you all see a huge difference in the pedigree of its winner.
Number of Different Winner
Median Average League Place Finish of FA Cup Winner
Number of Winners that Finished in 1-4 in League
Number of Winners Finishing 11th or Lower
1992-2020
8
3rd
17
1
1963-1991
15
7th
10
9
It is also worth noting that three winners in the earlier period were second division teams (Sunderland 1973, Southampton 1976 and West Ham 1980).
If you consider that since 1992 we have only finished in the top 3 on three occasions (2016, 2017, 2018) and that in the latter two occasions we were beaten in a semi-final by a team who would finish above us then perhaps the most obvious reason why we haven’t won the FA Cup has been that sadly the bar has risen and we are still not quite good enough.
That is perhaps a ‘get out’ for 30 years of failure in the competition and it is still beyond belief that clubs such as Millwall, Stoke, Southampton, West Ham, Watford and Middlesbrough have all enjoyed a grand day out at Wembley (or Cardiff between 2000 and 2007).
The table below summarises Spurs’ progress in each FA Cup Competition since 1991.
Year
Round
Team who knocked us out
Score
1992
3R
Aston Villa
0-1
1993
SF
Arsenal
0-1
1994
4R
Ipswich
0-3
1995
SF
Everton
1-4
1996
5R
Nottingham Forest
1-1(P)
1997
3R
Manchester United
0-2
1998
4R
Barnsley
1-3
1999
SF
Newcastle
0-2
2000
3R
Newcastle
1-6
2001
SF
Arsenal
1-2
2002
6R
Chelsea
0-4
2003
3R
Southampton
0-4
2004
4R
Manchester City
3-4
2005
6R
Newcastle
0-1
2006
3R
Leicester
2-3
2007
6R
Chelsea
1-2
2008
4R
Manchester United
1-3
2009
4R
Manchester United
1-2
2010
SF
Portsmouth
0-2
2011
4R
Fulham
0-4
2012
SF
Chelsea
1-5
2013
4R
Leeds
1-2
2014
3R
Arsenal
0-2
2015
4R
Leicester
1-2
2016
5R
Crystal Palace
0-1
2017
SF
Chelsea
2-4
2018
SF
Manchester United
1-2
2019
4R
Crystal Palace
0-2
2020
5R
Norwich
1-1(P)
2021
5R
Everton
4-5
Spurs’ progress in each FA Cup Competition since 1991
The Ingredients needed to reach an FA Cup Final
I have identified what is I think is required to actually get to a Cup Final:
LUCK OF THE DRAW
The role of random luck is often ignored in an age of micro-analysis and as such it is almost impossible to quantify exactly how significant luck is. The FA Cup’s very concept is based on the randomness of balls being drawn from a bag. Clearly avoiding the better teams can be very beneficial as can being drawn at home.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that our last successful FA Cup run in 1991 saw us drawn against four lower league opponents in Rounds 3-6 before playing Arsenal in the Semi-Final who admittedly were the champions elect that season. However, to play Nottingham Forest in the final (they had finished 1 place higher than us in 9th that season) was kinder than it could have been.
Looking through Winners and Runners Up progress since then is littered with good fortune – for example Man Utd’s run to the 2016 Final included no away games against PL opponents, none of the other ‘big 6’ teams, and three ties against lower league opponents before beating Everton and then Crystal Palace in the Semi-Final and Final.
Equally Cardiff (2008) and Millwall (2004) reached the Final as 2nd tier clubs but hadn’t been drawn against any Premier League teams all competition.
RANDOM IN-GAME LUCK
Much like the point above random luck plays a crucial part. Unlike a league campaign where luck and randomness can even out over a 38-game campaign one bad decision or the spin of the ball is crucial in a knock out competition. I have identified some of the more obvious examples below. On each occasion there is no way of telling whether the incident in question would have resulted in a different outcome:
Anderton not awarded penalty v Arsenal in 1993 SF at 0-0
Not awarded penalty v Newcastle for clear handball in 1999 SF at 0-0
Michael Dawson slipping on the shoddy Wembley turf v Portsmouth in 2010 SF at 0-0.
Injuries can come at bad times. In recent years Kane’s injury sustained in Jan 2019, and Son’s international duty meant neither were available at Crystal Palace in 2019 (perhaps they wouldn’t have been selected anyway?).
BE ABLE TO BEAT THE BEST TEAMS IN ONE-OFF GAMES
You are more than likely going to meet one of the established other top 5 sides on route to a final. Since beating Liverpool in 6th round in 1995 we have lost all 15 ties against:
Man U x4 – 1997 (Round 3), 2008 (4), 2009 (4), 2018 (SF)
Additionally, we have lost our only ties against other fellow PL teams:
Crystal Palace x2 – 2016 (5), 2019 (4)
Portsmouth – 2010 (SF)
Man City – 2004 (4)
Nottingham F – 1995 (5)
Barnsley – 1998 (4)
Norwich City – 2020 (5)
Since that Liverpool victory we have won only 16/41 FA Cup ties against fellow Premier League teams. The most impressive was perhaps the 2-0 5th round replay victory against Leeds in 1999. Aside from the win at West Ham (6th Round 2001) and Leicester (3R 2016) the other 13 victories have come against teams we finished comfortably above at the end of that season:
To put this into context this is the equivalent of gaining 44 points in a season – we have only gained less than 44 points twice during this period (93/4 and 97/8).
However, this is more frustrating as we had beaten the same opponent (who had knocked us out) in the league that season so knew how to beat them and/or were better than them at the time. It suggests that we are more committed to winning league games than FA Cup matches.
Apart from Man Utd’s aforementioned run to the 2016 FA Cup success and then Manchester City in 2019, the last 10 winners have beaten one of the other Top 5 teams:
Year
Winner
Top 5 Teams Faced
2011
Manchester City
SF v Manchester United
2012
Chelsea
Final v Liverpool, SF v Spurs
2013
Wigan
Final v Manchester City
2014
Arsenal
5R v Liverpool, 3R v Spurs
2015
Arsenal
6R v Manchester United
2016
Manchester United
2017
Arsenal
Final v Chelsea, SF v Manchester City
2018
Chelsea
Final v Manchester United
2019
Manchester City
2020
Arsenal
Final v Chelsea, SF v Manchester City
BE ABLE TO MANAGE THE FA CUP SCHEDULE
In what is already a very congested domestic schedule the FA Cup campaign (for Spurs) begins post- Christmas. Even with the benefit of a kind draw and random in-game luck the timing of fixtures plays a crucial part particularly if we haven’t had a deep squad to pick from.
For every season since 2009 we have gone into the second half of the league season, either in or just around the Champions League places. Rightly or wrongly the revenues this creates will always take precedence.
In retrospect 2016 probably presented our best chance of progressing – having been drawn against Crystal Palace at home in Round 5 we rested Lloris, Alderweireld and Eriksen and lost 1-0. A victory would have seen us drawn against Reading and then Watford before a final against Manchester United. However, the week before the Palace tie we had won 2-1 at Manchester City to establish us as genuine League Title contenders.
Equally, European football resumes in February usually around the same time as the FA Cup 5th round. In 13 of the last 15 seasons dating back to 2007 we have had the latter stages of either the Champions League or UEFA Cup/Europa League to balance.
Whilst the FA Cup is still considered as a superior competition to the League Cup it is also worth noting that by January the latter is at the semi-final stage and therefore just two ties away from yielding trophy success – on five occasions since 2007 we have found ourselves in a League Cup Semi-Final where typically the second leg is scheduled in the midweek just before or after FA Cup 4th round. In 2008, 2015 and 2019 we exited the FA Cup.
HOLDING YOUR NERVE (AND NOT BEING ‘SPURSY’)
Sorry – I hate the phrase as well and get how its constant use can perpetuate a vicious cycle if only just amongst a fanbase. Contrary to popular belief every team is a bit ‘Spursy’ – even Barcelona can lose 3-goal first leg victories and concede 8 goals in a semi-final.
However, in analysing why we’ve not won the FA Cup since 1991, or at least reached a final, ingredients 1-4 explain most but not all of our failures. There are still those years in which there was simply no better explanation than that we shot ourselves in the foot either in specific moments or approach to a one-off match which provides the ultimate jeopardy of elimination.
Most notably the 1995 and 2010 FA Cup Semi-Finals against Everton and Portsmouth come to mind. We went into both games as big favourites but managed to lose both in fairly humiliating fashion. On both occasions though it is worth remembering that had we won we’d have had to play Manchester United and Chelsea respectively.
Does the FA Cup help to breed future success?
There remains the argument that to win The FA Cup (or League Cup) could act as a catalyst to greater things and would enhance our chances of going onto challenge for and win the Premier League or Champions League. Does anyone think that had we won the FA Cup in 2012 we’d have got over the line in the Leicester season, or had the know how to deal better with Liverpool in Madrid? There’s really no way of knowing. Can anyone say beyond any reasonable doubt that had City not won the 2011 FA Cup (with an uber dull 1-0 win over Stoke) they would not have gone on to record 4 league titles?
In summary the reasons for not adding a 9th FA Cup success is that for much of the 90’s and early 2000’s we weren’t very good and since 2006 it hasn’t been the priority.
Gareth looks at how we consistently fail to take the final step
Another final comes and goes and the opportunity to end a now 13 year wait for a ‘trophy’ is extended much to the glee of our adversaries.
Let’s park the debate about the significance of trophies (compared to sustained top 4 league finishes) for the moment and just take it as given that winning an FA Cup or League Cup is better than not winning one but that attainment in the League is not a mutually exclusive pursuit. The subject was expertly covered on this week’s the Game is About Glory podcast (from 31:00 specifically).
As was pointed out the cup trophies in England have been hoovered up by those with significantly greater wealth and resource than we have.
Year
FA Cup Winners
League Cup Winners
2021
Chelsea or Leicester
Manchester City
2020
Arsenal
Manchester City
2019
Manchester City
Manchester City
2018
Chelsea
Manchester City
2017
Arsenal
Manchester United
2016
Manchester United
Manchester City
2015
Arsenal
Chelsea
2014
Arsenal
Manchester City
2013
Wigan
Swansea
2012
Chelsea
Liverpool
2011
Manchester City
Birmingham City
2010
Chelsea
Manchester United
2009
Chelsea
Manchester United
Table 1: Domestic Cup Winners since 2008
The outliers in that list are Wigan, Swansea and Birmingham – it is frustrating that we weren’t able to capitalise on the power vacuum that existed in the competitions in those particular seasons. (but look out for a future blog exploring our bizarre disconnect from the FA Cup). Annoyingly, unlike the mid to late 90’s when The League Cup was legitimately labelled a ‘Mickey Mouse’ trophy as the best teams – Manchester Utd and Arsenal – were apathetic towards it, the big boys now take great pride in winning it – the City players and staff celebrated this fourth successive victory – in a week in which they play a Champions League Semi Final – as if it was their first trophy.
You’ll need little reminding that our last silverware came in 2008…far too long ago but not quite as far back as the meme’s you’ll undoubtedly have been receiving today from West Ham fans whose last trophy arrived when there were only 3 terrestrial TV stations available.
They say you need to lose a final to know how to win one; presumably the heartache of seeing your opponent lift the trophy and celebrate in front of you provides that added determination to get it right next time. Yesterday’s defeat to a vastly superior Manchester City was our fourth successive final defeat dating back to the 2008 League Cup victory over Chelsea.
To lose 4 successive finals is something of an anomaly and coupled with our infamous streak of losing 8 successive FA Cup Semi Final’s suggests that there may be some sort of mental block. Other teams have suffered similarly – Liverpool lost 4 successive finals between 2012 and 2018: FA Cup (2012 v Chelsea) League Cup 2016 (v Manchester City) Europa League 2016 (v Seville) and Champions League (2018 v Real Madrid). Equally Sunderland had gone 8 Wembley appearances without a win between winning the FA Cup in 1973 and beating Tranmere in the Papa Johns Trophy against Tranmere in March this year.
We have been unfortunate that our four finals have all come against undisputedly brilliant teams.
2009 League Cup Final v Manchester Utd (0-0 – lost 4-1 on penalties) – Man Utd were English and European champions and would go on to win the league and reach the Champions League Final.
2015 League Cup Final v Chelsea (0-2) – Chelsea would become Premier League Champions
2019 Champions League Final v Liverpool (0-2) – Liverpool had just recorded 97 PL points; had played in last season’s Champions League Final and would go on to win the league at a canter the following season.
2021 League Cup Final v Man City (0-1) Champions elect and possible Champions League Winners too
I find it hard to accept that Spurs can ‘never win the big games’ because we have done in both the Premier League and Champions League. This hasn’t always been the case between the 90’s and until the early 2010’s our records against Arsenal (no wins between 1999 and 2008), Chelsea (no league wins between 1990 and 2006), Manchester Utd (no win at Old Trafford between 1989 until 2012) were appalling.
However, the league by its format provides few high stakes matches with the instant jeopardy that cup ties provide. The 2010 game at Manchester City is perhaps the closest we have been to a true league ‘cup final’ and of course we won on that memorable evening. Between 2015 and 2018 in the peak Poch era we won fixtures against Manchester City, Man Utd, Liverpool and even finally ended the hoodoo at Stamford Bridge in April 2018 – a result that effectively secured a finish above them.
The last two league campaigns have seen a steady regression back to pre Poch times. In fact, the biggest problem Pochettino created was the rise in expectations. The graphic below shows how between 2010 and 2016 the number of points remained roughly the same (between 62-72) but the incredible 2016/17 (the last at WHL) saw a big fluctuation and sadly since then the points have dropped off at an alarming rate though should consolidate this season probably rising a little.
Figure A: League points gained by Tottenham Hotspur per season since ENIC bough club in 2001
You must also look at the Champions League…though the wins over Inter Milan in the ‘taxi for Macon game’ and the thrilling victory over Real Madrid at Wembley were in the group stages. However, beating Dortmund over two legs in 2019 was an emphatic example of getting the job done. The incredible QF victory over Man City did of come courtesy of a large slice of luck but only by winning the home leg 1-0 and denying City an away goal and then scoring twice in 10 minutes in the return leg provided us a platform whereby we earned the luck needed by a narrow VAR Offside call.
In fact, almost the whole of the group stages in 2019 had aspects of jeopardy – we were going out for more than we were going through and crucial late goals against PSV, Inter and Barcelona saw us progress.
However, when thinking about our inability to win a cup competition, you can’t help think that there may be something intangible missing from the psyche of the club:
Season
Competition/Stage
Opponent
Outcome
2008/09
League Cup SF
Burnley
Won (2 legs)
2008/09
League Cup final
Manchester United
Lost (penalties)
2009/10
FA Cup SF
Portsmouth
Lost (0 – 2)
2011/12
FA Cup SF
Chelsea
Lost (1 – 5)
2014/15
League Cup SF
Sheffield United
Won (2 legs)
2014/15
League Cup final
Chelsea
Lost (0 – 2)
2016/17
FA Cup SF
Chelsea
Lost (2 – 4)
2017/18
FA Cup SF
Manchester United
Lost (1 – 2)
2018/19
League Cup SF
Chelsea
Lost (2 legs)
2018/19
Champions League SF
Ajax
Won (2 legs)
2018/19
Champions League final
Liverpool
Lost (0 – 2)
2020/21
League Cup SF
Brentford
Won (2 – 0)
2020/21
League Cup final
Manchester City
Lost (0 – 1)
Table 2: List of all Tottenham Hotspur Cup Semi-Final and Final Appearances since 2008
Once you remove the 3 League Cup Semi-finals against lower league opponents (Burnley, Sheffield Utd and Brentford) it makes the Ajax win very much the outlier in the list. These results have spanned 4 very different managers with some of our best players in a generation all involved.
On further analysis of the 9 defeats seven have occurred against an opponent who we had either already beaten in the league that season and/or finished above in the league too – i.e., we were more than capable of beating them. To have failed on nine successive occasions is surely not just unfortunate even though there is mitigation with nearly all of those games in isolation.
I think we all acknowledge that we are the Junior Partner in the ‘Top 6 cartel’ even though we have enjoyed finishing above all of them at least once in the last 5 seasons. Though a look at their comparative cup result data highlights the bizarre rate of failure that we have experienced.
Figure B: THFC record in Semi-Finals and Finals compared to the other ‘Big 6’ clubs
Our record is undisputedly the worst – especially as the few green bars have invariably come against lower division opposition (LD). Arsenal and Manchester City have the best records (10 – 3) whereas Chelsea have beaten us three times in their record of 9-4. Manchester Utd will need to find a way to reverse any psychological damage suffered in losing their last five significant cup ties.
It is interesting to compare Arsenal with Liverpool. The former has established themselves as Cup Specialists having previously focused on sustained entry to the Champions League. This run started though with highly fortuitous semi final draws in 2014 and 2015 (Wigan and Reading) and then by playing Hull City and Aston Villa in the respective finals. Liverpool, meanwhile, have done the opposite – Klopp has sacrificed domestic cup competitions to prioritise the Champions League as a process towards winning the League but of course with the exception of ‘Dr Tottenham’s help they have lost their last 4 finals having been masters of winning them in the decade prior (they had won 7 of their 8 previous cup finals).
Have we always been this bad in key cup ties? No is the short answer. The 13 semi-finals and finals prior to 2009 which culminated in the 2008 League Cup success are detailed below:
Season
Competition/Stage
Opponent
Outcome
1990/91
FA Cup final
Nottingham Forest
Won
1991/92
League Cup SF
Nottingham Forest
Lost
1992/93
FA Cup SF
Arsenal
Lost
1994/95
FA Cup SF
Everton
Lost
1998/99
FA Cup SF
Newcastle
Lost
1998/99
League Cup SF
Wimbledon
Won
1998/99
League Cup final
Leicester
Won
2000/01
FA Cup SF
Arsenal
Lost
2001/02
League Cup SF
Chelsea
Won
2001/02
League Cup final
Blackburn
Lost
2007/08
League Cup SF
Arsenal
Won
2007/08
League Cup final
Chelsea
Won
Table 3: Tottenham Hotspur’s 13 previous Semi-Final/Final appearances including and prior to 2008 League Cup Final
The first thing to spot is that there are six green bars and none with the caveat of lower league opposition. There is no doubt that Chelsea and Arsenal (in 2008) were better teams than us and likewise with Chelsea (2002). Leicester also finished above us for the three seasons before we beat them in 1999 and the 1991 victory over Nottingham Forest (our last FA Cup success) came against a backdrop of being knocked out of both domestic cups by the same opponent in 4 of the 6 seasons either side.
For those of you old enough to have lived through the cup glories of the early 80’s I’d be intrigued to get your take on what mental benefits were gained by the perpetual successes and ability to win semi-finals. Between 1981 and 1984 we won 6 from 7 of these ties resulting in 2 FA Cup’s and the 1984 UEFA Cup final. Why were we able to win these ties? Was it know-how, was it luck or was it just being a bit better than our respective opponent?
Whilst the previous comparisons identified failings when compared to the rest of the ‘top 6’ I have also compared our achievements against that next tier of clubs:
Figure C: THFC record in Semi-Finals and Finals compared to the other ‘similar sized’ clubs
What this shows is that we have far more frequently reached the latter stages of cup competitions than the clubs listed. It cements the view that whilst we are the Junior Partner of the so called ‘Big Six’ we are a long way ahead of the chasing pack using a variety of metrics. My time parameter was 30 years – Everton and West Ham have only played in 13 ties between them in this period. Villa have been frequent semi-finalists but have not won anything since the 90’s. Leicester have a lot of green but look at their opponents and also consider that their successes in the 90’s were during the period that the League Cup was de-prioritised.
As the dust settles on yesterday’s somewhat predictable yet commendable defeat against a rampant Manchester City side what will change before our next big cup tie? How many more lessons can this group of players, and football club as a whole, learn in order to make things better next time.
When we hear the standard platitudes from our players through heavily managed club PR/Comms about ‘going again’ and ‘we’ll learn our lessons for next time’ you have to wonder what actual conversations are taking place. Maybe we need a Sports Psychologist to work with the squad; maybe we just need to win once….or perhaps we just need to hope that Manchester City and Chelsea get knocked out in the early stages and that we can capitalise?
