Europa League

The January Transfer Window: A Tightrope Walk For Spurs

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The January transfer window is always a nail-biting time for football fans, but for Spurs supporters, it’s even more so this year. With the squad in a rebuild and strict squad regulations in both the Premier League and European competitions, the club has to tread carefully. Will Ange Postecoglou be able to bring in the reinforcements he needs while navigating the complexities of homegrown player rules? Let’s delve into the numbers and see what our options are.

Decoding the Squad Rules

Both the Premier League and European competitions have specific rules dictating squad composition, and these limitations directly impact our transfer strategy. Let’s break them down:

Photo Dom Le Roy from Pexels

European Squad Rules:

● Non-Homegrown Players: A maximum of 17 non-homegrown players are permitted in the squad.

● Homegrown Players: 8 spots are reserved for locally trained players, divided into:

○ Club-trained: 4 players who have been with the club for three seasons before their 21st birthday (or the end of the season during which they turn 21).

○ Association-trained: 4 players who have been registered with any club affiliated with The Football Association or the Football Association of Wales for three seasons before turning 21 (or the end of the season during which they turn 21).

● Under-21 Players: Unlimited under-21 players are allowed, but they must have been at the club for two years to be eligible.

Premier League Squad Rules:

● Non-Homegrown Players: The Premier League allows 17 non-homegrown players in a 25-man squad.

● Homegrown Players: 8 spots are allocated for homegrown players, with the same definition as association trained players in European competitions.

● Under-21 Players: The number of under-21 players is unrestricted.

This season, for the Premier League and European competitions, under-21 players will have been born on or after 1 January 2003.

Tottenham’s Current Squad: A Numbers Game

European Squad

Analysing Tottenham’s current European squad reveals a tight situation. Even with possible departures like Timo Werner, Fraser Forster or Richarlison the room for new signings is limited.

The homegrown player allocation for Europe poses a further challenge. Tottenham currently has two more association-trained players than permitted, which means both will be classified as non-homegrown. Consequently, we are already over our squad size restriction and were unable to register Djed Spence and Sergio Reguilon in the first half of the season. 

The injury to Destiny Udogie means that we will probably want to register Djed Spence for the second half of the season. Yang Min-hyeok joined the club officially in January, if we wanted to register him, he would count as a non-homegrown player, despite being 18, because he hasn’t been at the club for the 2 years needed to be counted as an under-21 player (B List).

We are allowed to make a maximum of 3 changes to our European squad between the league and knockout phases of the competition.

At Ange’s press conference ahead of the Newcastle game, he gave the following expected return dates for the injured players; Richarlison  and Mikey Moore – early January, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Ben Davies late January, Guglielmo Vicario late February.

We are at a 1 in, 1 out situation with our European squad. If Djed Spence is being added, we need to unregister someone to create the space and that leaves us with space for 2 further changes. Who do we drop to make space?

Tottenham Hotspur Europa League squad for 2024-25
Tottenham Hotspur Europa League squad 2024-25

Premier League Squad

In the Premier League things are a tad easier with 3 free squad spaces, but would new players be willing to join us and only be included in the squad for domestic competitions?

In the Premier League Yang Min-hyeok qualifies as an under-21 player, so won’t need to take up a senior squad space.

Tottenham Hotspur Premier League squad 2024-25

Addressing the Needs, Navigating the Constraints

We have several areas requiring reinforcements: a goalkeeper, left-sided centreback, leftback cover, a defensive midfielder, a right-winger, and potentially a striker. However, the limited squad space necessitates a strategic and measured approach in the transfer market.

Looking Ahead: A Balancing Act

The January transfer window presents us with a challenge: balancing the need for immediate reinforcements with the long-term vision of squad building. Each signing must be carefully considered, taking into account both the immediate needs of the team and the limitations imposed by squad regulations. The current window will be less about a shopping spree and more about a calculated and precise approach to squad management.

Running On Fumes

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Gareth and Milo discuss our draws against Fulham and Roma and ask whether a packed fixture list and our injuries are taking their toll on our football.

Buy Gareth’s book!

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Deki Dance

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Jingle bells jingle f**king bells this week as Steff and Milo reflect on the cakewalk at Old Trafford, settle back for a leisurely pop at pundits, bask in the warm glow of precise, controlled Angeball reaping consistent rewards and salute our Swedish Pele – Dejan Kulusevski, who has come to symbolise all that is right about Spurs 2024/25. We even take generous time to offer Man Utd fans an overview of why it’s so shite at Old Trafford (you’re welcome!) plus we look back at Qarabag midweek and the fan forum! Settle in for the Tottenham love parade!

Why can’t we get over the line?

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Gareth looks at how we consistently fail to take the final step

Another final comes and goes and the opportunity to end a now 13 year wait for a ‘trophy’ is extended much to the glee of our adversaries.

Let’s park the debate about the significance of trophies (compared to sustained top 4 league finishes) for the moment and just take it as given that winning an FA Cup or League Cup is better than not winning one but that attainment in the League is not a mutually exclusive pursuit. The subject was expertly covered on this week’s the Game is About Glory podcast (from 31:00 specifically).

As was pointed out the cup trophies in England have been hoovered up by those with significantly greater wealth and resource than we have.

YearFA Cup WinnersLeague Cup Winners
2021Chelsea or LeicesterManchester City
2020ArsenalManchester City
2019Manchester CityManchester City
2018ChelseaManchester City
2017ArsenalManchester United
2016Manchester UnitedManchester City
2015ArsenalChelsea
2014ArsenalManchester City
2013WiganSwansea
2012ChelseaLiverpool
2011Manchester CityBirmingham City
2010ChelseaManchester United
2009ChelseaManchester United
Table 1: Domestic Cup Winners since 2008

The outliers in that list are Wigan, Swansea and Birmingham – it is frustrating that we weren’t able to capitalise on the power vacuum that existed in the competitions in those particular seasons. (but look out for a future blog exploring our bizarre disconnect from the FA Cup). Annoyingly, unlike the mid to late 90’s when The League Cup was legitimately labelled a ‘Mickey Mouse’ trophy as the best teams – Manchester Utd and Arsenal – were apathetic towards it, the big boys now take great pride in winning it – the City players and staff celebrated this fourth successive victory – in a week in which they play a Champions League Semi Final – as if it was their first trophy.

You’ll need little reminding that our last silverware came in 2008…far too long ago but not quite as far back as the meme’s you’ll undoubtedly have been receiving today from West Ham fans whose last trophy arrived when there were only 3 terrestrial TV stations available.

They say you need to lose a final to know how to win one; presumably the heartache of seeing your opponent lift the trophy and celebrate in front of you provides that added determination to get it right next time. Yesterday’s defeat to a vastly superior Manchester City was our fourth successive final defeat dating back to the 2008 League Cup victory over Chelsea.

To lose 4 successive finals is something of an anomaly and coupled with our infamous streak of losing 8 successive FA Cup Semi Final’s suggests that there may be some sort of mental block. Other teams have suffered similarly – Liverpool lost 4 successive finals between 2012 and 2018: FA Cup (2012 v Chelsea) League Cup 2016 (v Manchester City) Europa League 2016 (v Seville) and Champions League (2018 v Real Madrid). Equally Sunderland had gone 8 Wembley appearances without a win between winning the FA Cup in 1973 and beating Tranmere in the Papa Johns Trophy against Tranmere in March this year.

We have been unfortunate that our four finals have all come against undisputedly brilliant teams.

  • 2009 League Cup Final v Manchester Utd (0-0 – lost 4-1 on penalties) – Man Utd were English and European champions and would go on to win the league and reach the Champions League Final.
  • 2015 League Cup Final v Chelsea (0-2) – Chelsea would become Premier League Champions
  • 2019 Champions League Final v Liverpool (0-2) – Liverpool had just recorded 97 PL points; had played in last season’s Champions League Final and would go on to win the league at a canter the following season.
  • 2021 League Cup Final v Man City (0-1) Champions elect and possible Champions League Winners too

I find it hard to accept that Spurs can ‘never win the big games’ because we have done in both the Premier League and Champions League. This hasn’t always been the case between the 90’s and until the early 2010’s our records against Arsenal (no wins between 1999 and 2008), Chelsea (no league wins between 1990 and 2006), Manchester Utd (no win at Old Trafford between 1989 until 2012) were appalling.

However, the league by its format provides few high stakes matches with the instant jeopardy that cup ties provide. The 2010 game at Manchester City is perhaps the closest we have been to a true league ‘cup final’ and of course we won on that memorable evening. Between 2015 and 2018 in the peak Poch era we won fixtures against Manchester City, Man Utd, Liverpool and even finally ended the hoodoo at Stamford Bridge in April 2018 – a result that effectively secured a finish above them.

The last two league campaigns have seen a steady regression back to pre Poch times. In fact, the biggest problem Pochettino created was the rise in expectations. The graphic below shows how between 2010 and 2016 the number of points remained roughly the same (between 62-72) but the incredible 2016/17 (the last at WHL) saw a big fluctuation and sadly since then the points have dropped off at an alarming rate though should consolidate this season probably rising a little.

Figure A: League points gained by Tottenham Hotspur per season since ENIC bough club in 2001

You must also look at the Champions League…though the wins over Inter Milan in the ‘taxi for Macon game’ and the thrilling victory over Real Madrid at Wembley were in the group stages. However, beating Dortmund over two legs in 2019 was an emphatic example of getting the job done. The incredible QF victory over Man City did of come courtesy of a large slice of luck but only by winning the home leg 1-0 and denying City an away goal and then scoring twice in 10 minutes in the return leg provided us a platform whereby we earned the luck needed by a narrow VAR Offside call.

In fact, almost the whole of the group stages in 2019 had aspects of jeopardy – we were going out for more than we were going through and crucial late goals against PSV, Inter and Barcelona saw us progress.

However, when thinking about our inability to win a cup competition, you can’t help think that there may be something intangible missing from the psyche of the club:

SeasonCompetition/StageOpponentOutcome
2008/09League Cup SFBurnleyWon (2 legs)
2008/09League Cup finalManchester UnitedLost (penalties)
2009/10FA Cup SFPortsmouthLost (0 – 2)
2011/12FA Cup SFChelseaLost (1 – 5)
2014/15League Cup SFSheffield UnitedWon (2 legs)
2014/15League Cup finalChelseaLost (0 – 2)
2016/17FA Cup SFChelseaLost (2 – 4)
2017/18FA Cup SFManchester UnitedLost (1 – 2)
2018/19League Cup SFChelseaLost (2 legs)
2018/19Champions League SFAjaxWon (2 legs)
2018/19Champions League finalLiverpoolLost (0 – 2)
2020/21League Cup SFBrentford Won (2 – 0)
2020/21League Cup finalManchester CityLost (0 – 1)
Table 2: List of all Tottenham Hotspur Cup Semi-Final and Final Appearances since 2008

Once you remove the 3 League Cup Semi-finals against lower league opponents (Burnley, Sheffield Utd and Brentford) it makes the Ajax win very much the outlier in the list. These results have spanned 4 very different managers with some of our best players in a generation all involved.

On further analysis of the 9 defeats seven have occurred against an opponent who we had either already beaten in the league that season and/or finished above in the league too – i.e., we were more than capable of beating them. To have failed on nine successive occasions is surely not just unfortunate even though there is mitigation with nearly all of those games in isolation.

I think we all acknowledge that we are the Junior Partner in the ‘Top 6 cartel’ even though we have enjoyed finishing above all of them at least once in the last 5 seasons. Though a look at their comparative cup result data highlights the bizarre rate of failure that we have experienced.

Figure B: THFC record in Semi-Finals and Finals compared to the other ‘Big 6’ clubs

Our record is undisputedly the worst – especially as the few green bars have invariably come against lower division opposition (LD). Arsenal and Manchester City have the best records (10 – 3) whereas Chelsea have beaten us three times in their record of 9-4. Manchester Utd will need to find a way to reverse any psychological damage suffered in losing their last five significant cup ties.

It is interesting to compare Arsenal with Liverpool. The former has established themselves as Cup Specialists having previously focused on sustained entry to the Champions League. This run started though with highly fortuitous semi final draws in 2014 and 2015 (Wigan and Reading) and then by playing Hull City and Aston Villa in the respective finals. Liverpool, meanwhile, have done the opposite – Klopp has sacrificed domestic cup competitions to prioritise the Champions League as a process towards winning the League but of course with the exception of ‘Dr Tottenham’s help they have lost their last 4 finals having been masters of winning them in the decade prior (they had won 7 of their 8 previous cup finals).

Have we always been this bad in key cup ties? No is the short answer. The 13 semi-finals and finals prior to 2009 which culminated in the 2008 League Cup success are detailed below:

SeasonCompetition/StageOpponentOutcome
1990/91FA Cup finalNottingham ForestWon
1991/92League Cup SFNottingham ForestLost
1992/93FA Cup SFArsenalLost
1994/95FA Cup SFEvertonLost
1998/99FA Cup SFNewcastleLost
1998/99League Cup SFWimbledonWon
1998/99League Cup finalLeicesterWon
2000/01FA Cup SFArsenalLost
2001/02League Cup SFChelseaWon
2001/02League Cup finalBlackburnLost
2007/08League Cup SFArsenalWon
2007/08League Cup finalChelseaWon
Table 3: Tottenham Hotspur’s 13 previous Semi-Final/Final appearances including and prior to 2008 League Cup Final

The first thing to spot is that there are six green bars and none with the caveat of lower league opposition. There is no doubt that Chelsea and Arsenal (in 2008) were better teams than us and likewise with Chelsea (2002). Leicester also finished above us for the three seasons before we beat them in 1999 and the 1991 victory over Nottingham Forest (our last FA Cup success) came against a backdrop of being knocked out of both domestic cups by the same opponent in 4 of the 6 seasons either side.

For those of you old enough to have lived through the cup glories of the early 80’s I’d be intrigued to get your take on what mental benefits were gained by the perpetual successes and ability to win semi-finals. Between 1981 and 1984 we won 6 from 7 of these ties resulting in 2 FA Cup’s and the 1984 UEFA Cup final. Why were we able to win these ties? Was it know-how, was it luck or was it just being a bit better than our respective opponent?

Whilst the previous comparisons identified failings when compared to the rest of the ‘top 6’ I have also compared our achievements against that next tier of clubs:

Figure C: THFC record in Semi-Finals and Finals compared to the other ‘similar sized’ clubs

What this shows is that we have far more frequently reached the latter stages of cup competitions than the clubs listed. It cements the view that whilst we are the Junior Partner of the so called ‘Big Six’ we are a long way ahead of the chasing pack using a variety of metrics.
My time parameter was 30 years – Everton and West Ham have only played in 13 ties between them in this period. Villa have been frequent semi-finalists but have not won anything since the 90’s. Leicester have a lot of green but look at their opponents and also consider that their successes in the 90’s were during the period that the League Cup was de-prioritised.

As the dust settles on yesterday’s somewhat predictable yet commendable defeat against a rampant Manchester City side what will change before our next big cup tie? How many more lessons can this group of players, and football club as a whole, learn in order to make things better next time.

When we hear the standard platitudes from our players through heavily managed club PR/Comms about ‘going again’ and ‘we’ll learn our lessons for next time’ you have to wonder what actual conversations are taking place. Maybe we need a Sports Psychologist to work with the squad; maybe we just need to win once….or perhaps we just need to hope that Manchester City and Chelsea get knocked out in the early stages and that we can capitalise?

Touched By The Hand Of Luton

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Bale’s brilliance, Kane’s klassic, Davo’s dominance and Moura’s marauding are all discussed in this week’s look back at 4-1 pummelling of Palace, plus we pause to remember the unfortunate day Scott Parker got goosed at Bicester Village and James Alexander Milo narrates the football scores. All this and acapella renditions of the Football Gazetta Italia theme song? You know you want it!

February Review

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This is a little different to a normal episode, a look back at the month of February and taking a more considered view of how it went. The regular pods are an immediate reaction to a game. This is an attempt to be more reflective and look at the bigger picture.  This is something that we are planning to do every month, so let’s hope it works!