‘Managing’ the Turbulence

Stick or Twist – the perennial debate

Not for the first time Spurs find themselves at a crossroads. There is currently (27th Dec) no suggestion that the real decision makers are sharpening the axe but there is a chasm growing between those supporters who love the Ange project and will happily provide the mitigation to explain the recent run of results and those who see the current situation as totally unacceptable and want the Australian relieved of his duties immediately.

As Spurs fans we’re well attuned to this process. Since 1984 Spurs have appointed 19 permanent managers – Peter Shreeve, David Pleat, Terry Venables, Ossie Ardiles, Gerry Francis, Christian Gross, George Graham, Glenn Hoddle, Jacques Santini, Martin Jol, Juande Ramos, Harry Redknapp, AVB, Tim Sherwood, Mauricio Pochettino, Jose Mourinho, Nuno Espirito Santo, Antonio Conte and Ange. That’s roughly one every two years.

Photo of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Photo by Omri Yamin on Unsplash

It’s not specific to Spurs by any means but the patterns are invariably the same. A string of bad results, crowd become restless, a sense of inevitability and a growing crescendo in the media usually followed by reports of player unrest, speculation about potential successors and then the ominous ‘Club Statement’ headline (or its pre-internet equivalent via a trusted media outlet).


Perhaps the toughest decision for any chairman (or whoever makes the decision) is whether to stick or twist once a manager appears to be in a tailspin. While Spurs have been through a lot of managers I feel that on the whole Daniel Levy has correctly sacked most managers at the right moment recognising that the tailspin each was in was irrecoverable.

It’s perfectly reasonable to find yourselves on either side of the debate but as a Spurs historian (very much with a small ‘h’) who has researched and written about every individual season, cycle and manager since 1980 I hope I can provide some historical context about what might happen next by providing two examples of managers who found themselves in a tailspin but survived…for a short period.

It’s important to highlight the sizeable differences in the way that we as supporters consume the game and share news and opinions. Social Media amplifies extreme views, meme culture ramps up anxiety and we seem to live in a more binary world with less room for nuance. Technology has furthered demands for instant fixes – amazon will deliver your parcel within 24 hours, your dinner can be with you in an instant. We’re not geared to be patient. It’s the way of the world. It wasn’t always.

It’s Autumn 1988. Terry Venables is approaching his 12-month anniversary since Irving Scholar persuaded him to return to White Hart Lane. Venables didn’t realise the magnitude of the rebuild required. Hoddle and Gough had left; Clemence and Ardiles were rapidly approaching retirement and Hodge and Clive Allen had contracts expiring at the end of the season. Under his predecessor, David Pleat, Spurs had let Roberts, Miller, Falco and Galvin leave the club. Even the undercard made up of promising young players had been sold – mostly to Norwich. Spurs were a mid-table team on the slide and lacking inspiration.

There was little new manager bounce – Spurs lost 11 of the 25 games in the remainder of the season which included a humiliating defeat at Port Vale in the FA Cup. Venables introduction of an aggressive and ultra-high defensive line was disastrous. They finished the season in 13th with new signings Mimms, Fenwick and Walsh having little impact despite their relatively high transfer fees.


By summer Venables ripped up his plans and instead played with a sweeper. There were subtle tweaks too – Venables wanted his defenders to show attackers in-field rather than out wide – as was customary.

Despite a huge investment over the summer – Spurs signed Gascoigne and Stewart – results didn’t improve. By the end of October Spurs were bottom of Division One having taken just seven points from ten games.

Irving Scholar reported finding Venables crying his eyes out in the toilets in the old West stand claiming that the fans had never taken to him as a player now they were turning against him as a manager.

Having made such a beeline for Venables there was little chance of Scholar now sacking him. Results improved – unbeaten in nine going into 1989 but the frailties were still there – dumped out of the FA Cup by Bradford and then new goalkeeper, Erik Thorstvedt (bought to replace Mimms who was clearly a dud) fumbled a Nigel Clough shot into his own goal on debut.

Spurs did rally though – Gascoigne hit form and his partnership with Waddle prospered. They finished the season in a respectable sixth place and this provided a foundation to build from. The following season, largely through the brilliance of Gascoigne and Lineker Spurs finished third and in 90/91 won the FA Cup when the competition was still revered.
It had paid to back Venables. He may not have survived in an era of 24-hour rolling sports news and social media?

Fast forward six years. Gerry Francis replaced Ossie Ardiles to add a pragmatism to a squad front-loaded with attacking flair that simply couldn’t defend. Francis proved to be a ‘nearly man’ – his morose demeanour perhaps prophesised the bad luck he endured. At the end of his first season Klinsmann, Barmby and Popescu were all reluctantly sold and replaced by good but not great players. Despite this Spurs spent much of 95/96 in the top six only narrowly missing out on UEFA Cup qualification and knocked out of the FA Cup on penalties by Nottingham Forest in a fifth-round tie epic.

96/97 was a huge disappointment. English football was moving in but Spurs weren’t. Anderton and Armstrong missed most of the season through injury. Mabbutt broke his leg on the opening day of the season and Spurs’ season quickly unravelled by the turn of the year. Spurs were humiliated 6-1 at Bolton in the League Cup and were beaten 7-1 at Newcastle to end 1996. Newcastle manager Kevin Keegan was so haunted by the look on Francis’ face at the final whistle that he resigned within three weeks citing the incredible pressure placed on football managers. Spurs were in a tailspin – perhaps it was time to replace the increasingly haggard looking Spurs manager?


The FA Cup campaign lasted just one game. A freak set of injuries deprived Francis of his three senior centre forwards. Two teenagers, Rory Allen and Neale Fenn started in a 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford. Talisman Teddy Sheringham had clearly had enough too and he was allowed to leave in the summer.

Francis cut a dejected figure throughout most of 1997; there would have been more calls for him to go were it not for anger directed towards Alan Sugar. Francis did experiment with different systems – a back three was possible after the signings of Scales and Vega – but the former was injured two games after making his debut and the latter immediately looked well out of depth despite a £3.75m January transfer.

Relegation was never really a threat but Spurs won just three games in eleven between January and April meaning there were closer to the bottom three than the top six. Despite all the mitigation it was a thoroughly uninspiring time to watch Spurs. It didn’t take a soothsayer to recognise that this was a team going nowhere fast. Francis himself had had enough. He offered his resignation five games into the 97/98 season but Sugar convinced him to stay. A proud man, Francis looked broken, the team went through the motions until Francis did resign in November with Spurs now in the bottom three.

1997 was a miserable year. Spurs won eight of 32 league games, losing 17. It was relegation form. For all his faults, Sugar was always patient with his managers. Maybe too patient? Francis always spoke highly of the support he was given from his chairman. However, the signs were there for all to see and the tailspin induced at the end of 1996 never recovered.

How does this play out for Ange? You may well recognise some similarities with both Venables and Francis. I’d argue in the case of Venables it was absolutely right to stand by him through a turbulent time. Under Francis, there was lots of mitigation for the underwhelming performance but he should have been allowed to leave six months before he did.

The other great example of remaining patient to a manager was Keith Burkinshaw who took Spurs down to Division Two in 1977. Could that feasibly happen today? Even Bill Nicholson endured a difficult first season. I appreciate these are real outliers for a number of reasons.

My fellow podcaster Milo introduced to me the concept of an untestable hypothesis – we’ll never know what might have happened had Venables been sacked when Spurs were bottom. The next manager might have taken them down or perhaps with Gascoigne and then Lineker it was inevitable that better times were around the corner?

Likewise, were Francis to have left in early 1997 which different candidates might have been available? Could there have been a rally and Sheringham convinced to stay…or was the manager irrelevant with Sugar’s running of the club?

In both cases we’ll never know. Just as we’ll never know if Angeball will be sustainable with a fully fit and deeper squad if he was sacked. Equally if we stick with him and the team continue to underwhelm would a more ‘pragmatic’ coach have been able to achieve something this season?


To find out more about Spurs in the 1990s order my book Is Gascoigne Going To have a Crack? here (or via amazon) 90sspursbook.square.site. My second book, Hot Shot Tottenham -Spurs in the 80s will be out in Autumn 2025.

Follow me on X @garethdace or Bluesky @80s90sspursbooks.bsky.social

The most average of Spurs 

When you think of Spurs in the premier league era what do you consider to be the average? Not the best of spurs and not the worst – just that smack bang in the middle Spurs. Therefore, don’t be drawn to the peak Pochettino era of league title challenges, unbeaten home seasons and Champions League football. Equally, don’t let your mind take you to the relegation scraps of 1994 and 1998, 2 points from 8 games or 6-0 defeats at Sheffield United. Think about the players who occupy that middle ground – not Klinsmann, Kane, Gary Doherty or Jason Cundy. 

Statistically you should be thinking of the current iteration of Tottenham Hotspur – or more specifically (as far as league performances go) the last 3 calendar year cycle from 2019 to the current day. 

Let me first explain the significance of a 3-year cycle as it is essentially an arbitrary time period. I always felt that 2018 becoming 2019 in hindsight saw a dramatic downturn in results and performances; taking the Champions League run aside the last really great performance under Pochettino was the 6-2 victory at Everton on 23 December. A result that in hindsight remains the swansong of an incredible era. 

Although the early part of 2019 did see some good results (four successive league wins against Fulham, Leicester, Newcastle and Watford in spite of some fairly turgid, if not determined performances) the team sleepwalked into 4th spot following this. It is therefore convenient on my part to start and end cycles at this point. Additionally a ‘3 year cycle’ is often discussed, even if it is not scientifically tested as a definitive period of time in which a team, under one or multiple coaches evolves with players travelling through natural physical peaks. 

I have therefore retrofitted the last 30 calendar years into ten 3-year cycles calculating the average number of points won per game and how that translates into a 38 game season. 

Table 1: breakdown of 3-year cycles with average number of points in a 38-game season calculated

YearsAve pts per gameSeason points equivalent
1992-19941.2547.57
1995-19971.3350.67
1998-20001.3250
2001-20041.2647.84
2004-20061.5157.33
2007-20091.3551.45
2010-20121.7566.67
2013-20151.8168.60
2016-20182.1180.30
2019-20211.5960.59
ALL (1992 – 2021)1.5357.99
The bottom row shows the average across the entire 30-year period – that is 1.53 pts per game which accounts to 58 points per season. 

Graph A – average points gained per season based on 3 year cycle

Graph B – average points per game as a full 38-game season equivalent 

The teams of the 90’s produced mediocre results despite the likes of Klinsmann, Sheringham, Anderton and Ginola being part of them.

If you look at the breakdown of 3-year cycles you’ll notice that the period closest to that overall average is the most recent one – 2019- 2021. 

Time will not fondly recall the 2019-2021 period but perhaps more due to the contrast to the cycle immediately prior – for the last 3 years we have undoubtedly been coming down the mountain. Indeed 2.11 – 1.59 (0.62 difference) is by far the biggest variance, positive or negative over the 30-year period covered. 

This blog is not intended to be one to judge the merits of ENIC but the trajectory from 2001 (when they took ownership of the club) had, until 2019 been a largely upwards one. 

Therefore it is fair to say that over the long-term this current team is an average reflection of Spurs in the Premier League era which prior to Pochettino was mostly a struggle to break out of mid table and a holy grail of finishing anywhere near European qualification. 

In trying to present an objective argument I’ll now talk you through some subjective thinking that perhaps backs up what the data is telling us. Dier, Davies, Sanchez, Winks and Lucas Moura were peripheral members of the peak Poch era starting XI. Whilst some of these have improved and/or fulfil functionary roles they are definite starters when available now (or at least towards the end of the 2019-2021 cycle). We know that recruitment has been poor and quite simply this team is nowhere near as good as its immediate predecessors. 

However, the data tells us that this current team is closer but slightly better in performance to it’s 2004-2006 version. This was the Martin Jol period. Of course tactically its very difficult to compare but this is roughly the strongest XI based on appearances made. 

2004-062019-21
RobinsonLloris
StalteriAurier*
YP LeeDavies
DawsonAlderweireld*
KingSanchez
CarrickSissoko*
JenasWinks
BrownDele*
LennonLucas Moura
KeaneSon
DefoeKane

By chance the 2004-06 team is virtually the team that played through most of the 2005-06 Lasagnegate season where you’ll recall we were desperately unfortunate not to finish in 4th place albeit the 67 points Arsenal eventually gained is below the average of 71 pts usually required. 

Because many of the players still exist who had been part of the golden Poch era it is easier to compare the current group to them but actually we should be taking ourselves back in time and asking what we would have expected when looking forward to a match circa 2005. 

On the whole though we have a squad available that is limited and like its 2004-2006 equivalent should be occupying the positions somewhere around 5th/6th spot. A team that finishes in these positions will by nature have flaws and will remain inconsistent – I suspect two home defeats to Wolves and Southampton is below par; draws with Liverpool and a win against Manchester City would be an overachievement. 

As ever hard date provides entirely objective outcomes. The eye test and those visceral emotions can provide just as useful answers. For me, trying to combine both, what is stark is the drop off seen over the last cycle which we are still feeling now. Whereas in the 2004-2006 period (especially once Jol took over) there was undeniably a feeling of a young team in development that hit an upward trajectory. The vibe around White Hart Lane on 31st December 2006 was significantly more optimistic than it had been on 1st January 2004. 

We are now into the next cycle (2022-2024) and the data sample size is of course just too small (for the record we are recording just 1.2 points per game) to draw any conclusions. We do not yet know at what point we will plateau from our fall from grace – one suspects the sheer force of nature that Conte provides plus the financial support provided by the stadium income means that we should start to `build a base to climb from again soon.  

Perhaps it should be some encouragement that 4 of the Cycle of 2019-2021 have been moved on at the club’s will (Alderweireld, Sissoko, Dele, Aurier). Romero and Bentancur should prove to be upgrades on Alderweireld and Sissoko respectively (at least based on their 2019-2021 form and ability). It is clear that a new right back/right wing back and a creative midfielder are urgently needed. 

We must hope that Skipp and Reguilon continue to improve but by the end of 2024 Kane, Son and Lloris (if still at the club) will be past their best and will need to have been replaced. 

This is without doubt the biggest on-field challenge facing ENIC since they took over in 2001 in addressing the slide. It would not require a hugely significant upturn in performances and results to be up and above 1.8 pts per game again and with a world-class Coach at the club this shouldn’t be impossible. However, the painful rebuild, is well underway and that will mean some uncomfortable times ahead. 

It’s A Grand Old Team

On this week’s pod, we each take a season and eulogize why that Spurs side meant so much to us. Enjoy recollections and reflections on Hoddle, Jol, Poch, Redknapp, Super David Howells and Davids among so many greats; guaranteed YOU were there to witness many of the moments mentioned!